ZF CEO Mathias Miedreich said on September 9 that electric trucks already account for about 30% of China's truck market and are expected to rise to 50%, while European penetration remains in the low single digits. He said the focus of electric drive technology has shifted to China, with major competitors including BYD, Geely's truck business and Windrose Technology. Andreas Moser, head of ZF's commercial vehicle division, revealed that at next week's IAA Transportation show, two of China's three largest truck manufacturers will display models equipped with ZF electric drive systems, and that Chinese automakers' export focus is Northern Europe. Previously, ZF recorded an impairment of about 1.6 billion euros because its passenger car electric drive business fell short of expectations. It is now pushing ahead with restructuring while calling for greater support for hybrid technology to hedge against uncertainty in the pace of Europe's pure electric transition.
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ZF Friedrichshafen AG CEO Mathias Miedreich told media on September 9 that electric trucks have already accounted for about 30% of China's truck market, and the company expects that share to climb to 50%; by contrast, electric truck penetration in Europe remains in the low single digits, with the pace of adoption still uncertain. He also said the center of gravity for electric drive technology has shifted to China, "the most dynamic market and a development base for new technologies."
30% vs. single digits: the penetration gap between two markets
From the figures cited by ZF, the Chinese and European electric truck markets are currently at different stages of development. China's roughly 30% penetration rate corresponds to an industry that has already achieved volume sales; Europe's single-digit penetration means demand has yet to enter a high-growth phase, and the pace of adoption remains variable.
Mathias Miedreich mentioned that ZF's main competitors in this field include BYD, Geely's truck business, and startups such as Windrose Technology. The list itself also shows that the competitive players in China's electric truck sector include both the commercial vehicle divisions of traditional OEM groups and newly entered electrification companies.
IAA booth: Chinese truck makers to feature ZF electric drive systems
ZF's commercial vehicle business chief Andreas Moser said the shift in industrial gravity will be reflected at next week's IAA Transportation (Hannover International Transportation Expo): two of China's three largest truck makers are expected to exhibit models equipped with ZF electric drive systems.
This arrangement means that China's electric truck industry still has a supply relationship with European component suppliers in the powertrain segment, rather than comprising two completely separate supply chains.
Moser also said Chinese automakers' export ambitions continue to strengthen, with target markets especially focused on Northern Europe, further intensifying competitive pressure on Western peers. The Nordic market has relatively high acceptance of electrified commercial vehicles, and Chinese automakers' intention to use it as an export entry point is fairly clear.
Domestic and overseas markets: ZF's two sets of judgments
For China's domestic market, ZF's expectations are relatively clear: most trucks sold locally will ultimately use electric drive systems from local suppliers. In effect, this judgment acknowledges the position of local supply chains in terms of cost and supply-chain coordination efficiency.
But as Chinese automakers expand into overseas markets, ZF believes cooperation opportunities still exist. Mathias Miedreich said such cooperation can also reduce its production costs for components in Germany and generate cash flow for its European business. For Chinese automakers going global, using suppliers with local service networks and compliance experience in target markets is an optional path for localization; for ZF, this business helps spread the cost pressure of its European manufacturing operations.
The cost of passenger car electric drive and the retention of the hybrid route
ZF's move to increase its bet on China's electric truck market comes against the backdrop of setbacks in its passenger car electric drive business. The company had previously bet on passenger car electric drive and suffered huge losses: as the passenger car electrification market adopted more slowly than expected, multiple projects continued to lose money, ZF terminated some projects early, and last year recorded impairment losses of about 1.6 billion euros (equivalent to US$1.9 billion). The business segment is currently being restructured and is expected to cut thousands of jobs.
On powertrain technology routes, ZF is calling on the industry to increase support for hybrid technology. Its logic is to hedge against uncertainty in the pace of the zero-emission vehicle transition by, on the one hand, entering China's electric truck market, which is growing faster and has a clearer scale, and on the other hand, retaining hybrid technology routes to suit the European market, where the transition cycle is expected to be longer.
A component giant's two-track strategy
Taken together, ZF's strategy shows two parallel tracks: seeking growth in China's electric truck market, where penetration has already reached scale, while using hybrid routes in Europe to hedge against the risk of uncertain pure-electric transition progress. In Miedreich's remarks, "the center of gravity has shifted to China" is a description of industrial reality, while retaining hybrids and advancing restructuring are adjustments to its own business structure.
For China's electric truck supply chain, this statement offers two observation points: first, the leading position of local electric drive suppliers in the domestic market is already anticipated by international peers; second, as Chinese automakers go global, international component companies are still trying to participate through supporting cooperation and localized cost advantages. Competition intensity in target markets such as Northern Europe is expected to change as the pace of Chinese automakers' exports accelerates.
