In 2026, Tesla FSD faces multiple turning points: Musk publicly admitted HW3 cannot achieve unsupervised FSD due to memory bandwidth limitations; FSD shifted from buyout to $99/month subscription; China FSD was approved but faces localization challenges.
HW3's "Computing Lie": Musk Finally Admits
In June 2026, Musk admitted on the earnings call: HW3 fundamentally cannot achieve unsupervised full self-driving.
| Comparison | Chinese NEVs | Tesla HW3 |
|---|---|---|
| NIO NT2.0 | 1016 TOPS | 144 TOPS |
| XPeng/Li Auto/Xiaomi | 508 TOPS (dual Orin) | 144 TOPS |
FSD Business Model Revolution
On January 14, 2026, Musk announced on X:
From February 14, 2026, FSD abolishes one-time buyout, fully switching to subscription.
| Model | Price | Target Users |
|---|---|---|
| Original buyout | $8,000 | Long-term holders |
| New subscription | $99/month or $999/year | Flexible users |
FSD China: Challenges Behind the Halo
| Function | US Version | China Version |
|---|---|---|
| Data source | Global data pool | Limited engineering vehicle samples |
| Tidal lane recognition error | — | 23% (vs XPeng XNGP 7%) |
| Efficiency | — | 34% lower than human driving |
Conclusion
Tesla FSD is experiencing growing pains from "hardware promises" to "software reality." More at EX1000.COM.
