H1 2026 automaker earnings forecasts reveal significant profit declines due to cost surges, FX losses, and intensifying price wars. Seres swung to a loss of 1.5-1.8 billion yuan.
Automaker H1 Reports: Profit Winter Arrives
Since July, listed automakers have released H1 2026 earnings forecasts. The overall picture: losses.
Seres swung from profit to loss, forecasting H1 net loss of 1.5-1.8 billion yuan. The company cited intensifying price wars, rising raw material costs, and increased R&D investment.
Changan Automobile forecasts H1 net profit down over 50% year-on-year. Despite sales growth, per-vehicle profit has been severely eroded by price wars.
Great Wall Motor also faces profit pressure, with H1 net profit expected to decline about 30%.
Three Culprits Behind Profit Decline
1. Intensifying Price Wars: H1 2026 saw unprecedented discounting. Industry average selling prices fell 5-10%, directly compressing margins.
2. Cost Pressure: While lithium prices have declined, chip and steel costs remain elevated. Autonomous driving R&D investment has also surged.
3. FX Losses: RMB exchange rate fluctuations caused significant FX losses for export-oriented companies.
Structural Divergence Intensifies
Profit declines show clear structural divergence:
- New Forces: Except Li Auto, NIO, Xpeng, and Leapmotor remain loss-making
- Traditional Automakers: GAC, SAIC with high JV dependence see more severe profit declines
- Parts Suppliers: Margins compressed by OEM price-down demands
