By 2030, China's retired power battery volume will exceed 1 million tons annually, equivalent to nearly 3,000 tons daily, while formal recycling companies face challenges from low-price competition.
Retirement Wave Scale: Million-Ton Challenge
China's NEV industry faces its first large-scale power battery retirement wave. Industry forecasts predict that by 2030, annual retired battery volume will exceed 1 million tons, equivalent to nearly 3,000 tons daily.
Current market characteristics:
| Indicator | Data | Source |
|---|---|---|
| 2030 estimated volume | 1.06M tons/year | Industry forecast |
| Standardized recycling rate (2023) | Below 25% | State Council |
| Formal recycling enterprises | 148 | MIIT |
| Small workshop market share | ~50% | Industry estimate |
Challenges for Formal Enterprises
Despite huge demand, formal recycling companies face:
- Price disadvantage: Small workshops offer 15-20% higher prices
- Channel barriers: ~45% of vehicle owners don't know where to recycle
- Cost pressure: Formal companies invest heavily in facilities and environmental compliance
Policy Response and Industry Outlook
The "Interim Measures" effective April 1, 2026, introduced three key measures:
- Vehicle-battery integrated scrapping
- Battery digital ID: 24-digit national standard code
- Prohibition on illegal diversion
Leading companies like CATL's Brunp Recycling achieve 99.6% nickel-cobalt-manganese recovery and 90%+ lithium recovery.
For more information, visit EX1000.COM.
