In the first half of 2026, China's automobile production and sales reached 14.993 million and 15.017 million units respectively. NEV production and sales exceeded 7.4 million units, with exports of 2.355 million units up 1.2x year-over-year. June monthly exports exceeded 1 million for the first time.
Overall Trend: Declining Production-Sales Gap Narrows Monthly, Exports Beat Expectations
On July 9, 2026, the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM) held its monthly press conference in Beijing, releasing June and H1 2026 automobile production and sales data. The data shows that China's domestic auto industry maintained stable operations in H1, with cumulative production-sales declines narrowing month by month.
Specifically, June automobile production and sales reached 2.76 million and 2.81 million units respectively, down 1.2% and 3.2% year-over-year. For January-June, production and sales reached 14.993 million and 15.017 million units respectively, down 4% and 4.1% year-over-year, with the decline narrowing further compared to the first five months.
CAAM analysis indicates that the H1 market exhibited three major differentiation characteristics worthy of industry attention.
Differentiation 1: Domestic Demand Under Pressure, Exports Become Growth Engine
The most significant feature of China's auto market in H1 is the widening gap between domestic demand and exports:
- Domestic sales: Affected by consumption weakness, domestic passenger vehicle sales saw double-digit declines
- Automobile exports: June vehicle exports reached 1.037 million units, breaking the one-million mark for the first time in a single month, up 75.1% year-over-year
- H1 cumulative exports: 5.096 million units, up 65.3% year-over-year
The unexpectedly strong export growth has become the core support stabilizing the overall auto market. This trend is closely related to the accelerated global expansion of Chinese automobile brands since 2025.
Differentiation 2: Passenger Vehicles Decline Slightly, Commercial Vehicles Continue Growth
The passenger vehicle market underperformed in H1 with slight declines, while the commercial vehicle market maintained positive momentum:
| Segment | June Sales | YoY Change | H1 Cumulative | YoY Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Passenger Vehicles | 2.402M units | +6.6% MoM | — | Slight decline |
| Commercial Vehicles | — | Continued growth | — | Maintained growth |
| NEVs | 1.643M (sales) / 1.598M (production) | +23.6% / +26% | 7.446M (sales) / 7.438M (production) | +7.3% / +6.7% |
The stable growth of new energy vehicles was the brightest spot in the H1 auto market.
Differentiation 3: Accelerating Transition of Old and New Growth Drivers
The most profound structural change in H1 was the accelerating transition between old and new growth drivers:
- In June 2026, NEV production and sales reached 1.598 million and 1.643 million units respectively, up 26% and 23.6% year-over-year
- NEV sales accounted for 58.5% of total automobile sales
- For January-June, NEV production and sales reached 7.438 million and 7.446 million units respectively, up 6.7% and 7.3% year-over-year
| Metric | June Data | H1 Cumulative | YoY Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| NEV Production | 1.598M units | 7.438M units | +6.7% |
| NEV Sales | 1.643M units | 7.446M units | +7.3% |
| NEV Domestic Sales | 1.12M units | 5.09M units | -13.4% (cumulative) |
| NEV Exports | 523K units | 2.355M units | +1.2x (cumulative) |
Notably, NEV domestic sales totaled 5.09 million units in H1, down 13.4% year-over-year, showing that domestic NEV consumption faces certain pressure following subsidy phase-outs. However, exports became the biggest highlight: June NEV exports reached 523,000 units, up 17.2% month-over-month and 1.6x year-over-year. H1 cumulative NEV exports reached 2.355 million units, up 1.2x year-over-year.
Export Market Landscape: NEVs Account for 46% of Total Auto Exports
H1 NEV exports of 2.355 million units accounted for 46% of total automobile exports, making NEVs the core growth pole of China's auto exports. By regional distribution:
- Europe: Accounts for approximately 35% of NEV exports, the largest overseas market for Chinese NEVs
- Southeast Asia: Approximately 28%, with rapid growth momentum
- Middle East: Approximately 18%, where Chinese brands have high penetration rates
- Central Asia and Russia: Traditional advantage markets with steady share growth
For dealers in Central Asian and Russian markets, the high growth of Chinese auto exports means:
- More abundant product supply with continuously increasing brand and model options
- Greater investment in overseas service networks by Chinese automakers, improving after-sales capabilities
- Accelerating NEV technology iteration with continuously strengthening product competitiveness
H2 Outlook: Demand Release and Market Segmentation
CAAM's projections for the H2 industry trajectory include:
- With significant oil price cuts in July and the cumulative effects of consumption stimulus policies, suppressed car purchase demand is expected to gradually release in Q3
- The passenger vehicle trade-in policy effects are expected to improve marginally
- The NEV market will accelerate its shift from "policy-driven" to "market-driven"
- Industry consolidation will continue to deepen, with leading firms further cementing their advantages
In H1 2026, China's auto industry demonstrated considerable resilience amid complex domestic and international conditions. The unexpectedly strong export growth and stable NEV performance have laid a solid foundation for achieving annual targets. For more in-depth industry analysis, please follow EX1000.COM.
