Consulting firm AlixPartners forecasts China's auto exports will reach 10 million units in 2026, up 41% YoY, equivalent to 2.5x Japan's annual export volume. NEV exports in the first five months hit 1.83 million units, surging 110% YoY.
10 Million Units: A Milestone Forecast
AlixPartners' July 2 industry outlook predicts China's auto exports will reach 10 million units in 2026, up 41% year-over-year. This figure equals Toyota's annual global sales and is approximately 2.5 times Japan's annual auto exports.
CAAM data shows January-May 2026 exports reached 4.059 million units, up 63% YoY:
- NEV exports: 1.833 million units, up 110%
- ICE exports: up 36%
- May single-month: 930,000 units, up 68.7%
Export Structure Undergoing Qualitative Change
| Metric | Full Year 2025 | Jan-May 2026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total exports | 7.098M | 4.059M | +63% YoY |
| NEV share | ~35% | 45.1% | +10pp |
| NEV YoY growth | — | 110% | Far exceeding ICE |
Top destinations Jan-May:
- South America (Brazil 386,000)
- Europe (UK 194,000, Belgium 163,000)
- Middle East & Central Asia continued growth
Special Opportunities in Central Asia & Russia
AlixPartners' Asia-Pacific lead noted Chinese OEMs are accelerating entry into core European markets. For Central Asian buyers, this means:
- More model choices: Rapid expansion from mini cars to luxury SUVs
- Sustained price competitiveness: Scale effects supporting cost advantages
- Accelerated tech iteration: Smart features standardizing, 800V platforms spreading
Vehicles sourced through EX1000.COM have become core inventory across Central Asia. With exports breaking 10 million, supply chain stability will further strengthen.
Historical Export Trajectory
| Year | Exports (10K units) | YoY Growth | Milestone |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 99.6 | — | Pandemic start |
| 2021 | 201 | +102% | Broke 2M |
| 2022 | 311 | +54.7% | Surpassed Germany |
| 2023 | 490 | +57.6% | First to surpass Japan |
| 2024 | 580 | +18.4% | Steady growth |
| 2025 | 709.8 | +22.4% | Broke 7M |
| 2026E | 1000-1200 | +41% | Targeting 10M |
Risks and Challenges
The forecast warns of:
- Subsidy phase-out: 2026 NEV purchase tax halved from exemption, max reduction cut from 30K to 15K yuan
- Trade barriers: EU anti-subsidy tariffs on Chinese EVs, US policy uncertainty
- Currency fluctuation: Impact on export margins
AlixPartners predicts 2026 China domestic sales at 24.6 million units, down 10%. Domestic contraction will further pressure OEMs to accelerate overseas expansion.
Global Market Share Growth
Chinese brands hold 10% European market share, projected to reach 16% by 2030. In emerging markets like Southeast Asia, Middle East, and Central Asia, penetration is rising faster. For Central Asian dealers, 10 million export scale means more stable supply, richer models, and more competitive pricing.
