On June 30, China's Automotive Power Battery Innovation Alliance released a report projecting domestic battery retirements to reach 1 million tons in 2026 and over 5 million tons by 2035. In 2025, waste battery generation reached approximately 400,000 tons, with recycled materials already meeting over 10% of domestic battery production needs.
Core Data: Battery Retirements Entering High-Growth Phase
The "China Power Battery Recycling Industry Development Research Report" published on June 30 reveals a critical trend. China's power battery retirement volume is entering an exponential growth phase.
Key data from the report:
- 2025: Waste power battery generation reached approximately 400,000 tons, up 30% year-over-year
- 2026: Projected retirements to reach 1 million tons
- 2030: Recycling market size expected to reach $170-210 billion
- 2035: Retirements projected to exceed 5 million tons
Vehicle power batteries have an average lifespan of 5-8 years. This means batteries installed during the 2018-2020 NEV explosion are entering concentrated retirement.
Recycling Value: Reducing Critical Metal Import Dependence
| China heavily relies on imports for multiple critical metals: | |
|---|---|
| Metal | Import Dependence |
| ------- | ------------------ |
| Nickel | Over 85% |
| Cobalt | Over 95% |
| Lithium | Over 70% |
| Copper | Over 80% |
Recycling millions of tons of再生 metals can reduce ore imports by tens of millions of tons. In 2025, recycled materials already met over 10% of domestic battery production needs. This ratio could rise to 15%+ by 2030 and eventually exceed 50%.
Three Drivers of Recycling Industry
1. Rapidly growing retired battery volumes ensure ample raw material supply 2. Critical metal price volatility improves recycling economics 3. Continuous policy support and improving industry standardsChallenges and Outlook
The recycling industry still faces challenges:
- Fragmented collection channels, formal recycling rates need improvement
- Non-unified technical standards; cascade and再生 utilization paths need optimization
- Small workshop enterprises disrupting market order
Nevertheless, the strategic value of power battery recycling is undeniable. Overseas buyers following China's NEV industry chain through EX1000.COM should note that battery recycling capability is becoming one of China's core competitive moats in the NEV industry. A robust recycling system not only reduces raw material costs but also significantly improves the full-lifecycle carbon footprint of NEVs.
Over the next decade, whoever builds an efficient battery recycling network will gain advantage in long-term NEV industry competition.
