CPCA Secretary Cui Dongshu stated that May 2026 end-month passenger vehicle industry inventory was 3.48 million units, with manufacturer inventory at 30.3%—relatively high. The team's optimism for June dropped to 31%, a historically low prediction index. High oil prices and weak consumption are main drivers.
Inventory Data Breakdown
End-May 2026 national passenger vehicle industry inventory was 3.48 million units, down 60,000 from April, up 30,000 from May 2025, showing flat inventory trends. Manufacturer inventory share at 30.3% is relatively high, indicating channel destocking pressure continues transferring upstream.
Inventory Structure Comparison
| Metric | Value | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| End-May Total Inventory | 3.48 million units | Down 60,000 MoM |
| YoY Change | Up 30,000 units | Flat trend |
| Manufacturer Inventory Share | 30.3% | Relatively high |
| Channel Inventory Share | 69.7% | Relatively normal |
Weak Market Confidence
May 2026 market optimism was just 27%; early June satisfaction with May was 26%—expectations were low but satisfaction was even worse, mainly due to high oil price shocks. June optimism dropped to 31%, a historically low prediction index.
- The market has entered a "high inventory, low confidence" dual-pressure state
- Weak consumption and high oil prices form a double suppression
Confidence Indicator Trends
- May market optimism: 27%
- May post-month satisfaction: 26%
- June market optimism forecast: 31% (historically low)
Combustion Vehicle Sales Collapse
High oil prices have driven continued combustion vehicle sales decline. CPCA data shows April 2026 conventional fuel vehicle average discount reached ¥23,000 on average prices of ¥131,000—a 17.2% reduction. Dongchedi's April retail ranking shows only Geely Binyue among fuel vehicles in the top 10; the other nine are electric.
- Large fuel vehicle discounts still fail to stop sales decline
- Electric models occupy nine of the top ten positions
Impact on Overseas Procurement
High domestic inventory is a double-edged sword for overseas importers.
- On one hand, manufacturers and dealers may increase export efforts to destock, creating favorable procurement conditions
- On the other hand, inventory pressure reflects weak domestic demand, and some financially strained automakers may affect overseas order delivery stability
Overseas importers are advised to prioritize partnerships with financially stable, export-experienced major automakers. EX1000.COM reminds Central Asian and Russian buyers to monitor automaker delivery capacity changes.
