In 2026, MIIT officially implemented the "Passenger Vehicle Fuel Consumption Evaluation Methods and Indicators", requiring OEM NEV credit ratio to reach 48%. The ratio rises to 58% in 2027. Combined with sustained oil price increases, the fuel vehicle market faces unprecedented dual policy and market pressure.
Policy Core: 48% NEV Credit Threshold
In 2026, MIIT's officially implemented "Passenger Vehicle Fuel Consumption Evaluation Methods and Indicators" is dubbed the "strictest fuel consumption standard":
Core metrics:
- 2026: OEM NEV credit ratio must reach 48%
- 2027: Rises to 58%
- 2028: Target not yet announced, expected to further increase
- Fuel consumption limit: 2026 traditional energy passenger vehicle average fuel consumption limit tightened by approximately 10% YoY
What does this mean?
- If an OEM sells 1 million units annually, at 48% it needs credits equivalent to 480,000 NEVs
- Enterprises failing to meet standards must purchase credits from others or face penalties
- Traditional fuel vehicle-dependent enterprises (some JV brands) face enormous pressure
Dual Policy and Market Pressure
Fuel vehicles are experiencing policy + market dual pressure:
| Pressure Factor | Specific Manifestation | Impact Level |
|---|---|---|
| Policy | 48% NEV credit threshold | Mandatory transformation |
| Policy | NEV purchase tax exemption extended to end-2027 | NEV cost advantage |
| Market | Sustained oil price increases | Cost sensitivity |
| Market | Consumer preference shift | Rising NEV acceptance |
| Competition | NEV technology iteration | Declining fuel vehicle competitiveness |
OEM Responses: Three Divergent Strategies
Facing the 48% credit threshold, OEMs have diverged into three strategies:
- Full electrification: BYD, Tesla already 100% NEV, no pressure
- Accelerated transition: Geely, Changan, Great Wall pushing hybrid + pure EV, 2026 NEV share targets 50-60%
- Passive response: Some JV brands still reliant on fuel vehicles, weak NEV product lines, facing credit purchase pressure
Geely's 2026 NEV sales target exceeds 50%, BYD is already 100% NEV. Some traditional JV brands' NEV model share remains below 20%, showing clear gaps.
Industry Chain Impact: Chain Reaction from OEM to Parts
The strictest fuel standard is reshaping the entire industry chain:
- Engine business: Traditional ICE R&D investment declining, some enterprises closing engine factories
- Transmission business: Automatic transmission demand declining, electric drive system demand surging
- Battery industry chain: Power battery, motor,电控 demand continuing high growth
- Charging infrastructure: Policy supporting target of 3 million new charging piles in 2026
Implications for Overseas Buyers
For importers in Central Asia, Russia, and similar markets, China's fuel consumption policy sends important signals:
- Chinese fuel vehicle export capacity may increase: Domestic fuel vehicle demand declining, export becoming an outlet
- NEV technology will continue leading: Policy-driven technology iteration fastest globally
- PHEV becoming optimal transitional solution: Credit policy favorable to PHEV, abundant product supply
- Pure EV costs continuing to decline: Scale effects + policy subsidies, continuously improving cost-performance
Among overseas buyers inquiring through EX1000.COM, queries tracking Chinese NEV policy changes grew 89% over the past 6 months, showing policy direction is influencing global procurement decisions.
