Starting July 1, 2026, two mandatory national standards—GB18384-2025 "Electric Vehicle Safety Requirements" and GB38031-2025 "Power Battery Safety Requirements for Electric Vehicles"—will take effect. The new rules elevate battery safety from "5-minute warning before fire" to "no fire or explosion for 2 hours after thermal runaway," adding bottom-impact and fast-charge-cycle safety tests. Physical emergency disconnect switches become mandatory. Industry experts believe the regulations will fundamentally reshape competition, accelerating market consolidation and putting intense survival pressure on small battery manufacturers and low-end automakers.
Battery Safety: A Qualitative Leap from "Warning" to "Zero Fire"
On June 22, 2026, less than 10 days remain before two mandatory EV safety standards take effect. GB18384-2025 and GB38031-2025 mark China's entry into a new phase of new energy vehicle safety regulation.
The previous standard (GB38031-2020) required batteries to issue an alarm signal 5 minutes before fire or explosion. The new standard raises this to: no fire or explosion for at least 2 hours after thermal runaway. Even if a single cell experiences internal short-circuit triggering thermal runaway, the entire battery pack must remain safe for up to 2 hours.
To meet this requirement, two critical new tests are added:
- Bottom-impact test: A 30mm impactor strikes the battery bottom with 150 joules of energy for 3 consecutive times. The pack must show no leakage, rupture, fire, or explosion
- Post-fast-charge safety test: For cells capable of 20%-80% charging within 15 minutes, the battery must undergo external short-circuit testing after 300 fast-charge cycles without fire or explosion
Vehicle Safety: Physical Disconnect Replaces Software Control
At the vehicle level, the new standard makes a crucial change—mandatory physical high-voltage circuit disconnection capability.
Specifically, the "one-touch power-off" device is defined for the first time as a physical disconnect. It must be positioned where the driver can easily operate it, allowing the driver to cut drive system power with a single action when the vehicle is stationary and not charging. This directly addresses crash rescue scenarios where software-controlled shutdowns may fail due to system crashes or signal interruption after collision.
Two important operating logic rules are also introduced:
- Transition from power-off to "drive-ready mode" requires at least two conscious distinct actions, with at least one being brake pedal depression
- When brake and accelerator signals occur simultaneously, the vehicle must prioritize brake response
Compliance Cost Pressure: Who Bears the Burden?
The new standards include a phased transition: all newly registered EV models must fully comply from July 1, 2026; vehicles already on sale get a one-year transition period until July 1, 2027.
However, compliance cost effects are already emerging. Battery safety upgrades involve structural reinforcement, thermal insulation material upgrades, and BMS strategy redesign. Physical disconnect hardware requires high-voltage circuit redesign and new components. Combined with rising chip and commodity prices over the past six months, compliant models launched after July face clear upward price pressure.
Cost absorption capabilities vary significantly across the industry:
| Enterprise Type | Cost Pressure | Response Capacity |
|---|---|---|
| Leading self-developed battery OEMs (BYD, Geely) | Medium | Can internalize costs while maintaining pricing and safety advantages |
| Leading battery suppliers (CATL, BYD) | Low | Scale spreads costs; compliance verification completed early |
| Small battery makers | Extremely high | Must rebuild production lines and test labs; huge transformation investment |
| Low-cost micro EV makers | High | Lose low-cost supply chain advantage; low-end volume models market shrinks |
Cui Dongshu, Secretary-General of CPCA, told Yicai that these regulations will fundamentally rewrite industry competition logic. Industry standard upgrades increase compliance costs and accelerate Matthew Effect differentiation. The power battery sector will speed up consolidation—small battery manufacturers lacking technology and capital will fail to meet standards, dramatically increasing industry concentration.
Market Context: Safety Upgrade Timely as Penetration Surges
The timing of the new standards is highly relevant. Latest CPCA data shows national passenger vehicle NEV retail penetration reached 63.9% from June 1-14, with wholesale penetration at 67.9%. Against this backdrop of surging NEV adoption, the new standards directly raise industry safety thresholds.
For overseas buyers, the upgrade of China's EV safety standards is a positive signal. Central Asian and Russian buyers sourcing through platforms like EX1000.COM are increasingly focused on safety certifications and regulatory compliance. The implementation of these new standards will further strengthen the quality reputation of Chinese electric vehicles in global markets.
